Bread, cheese and wine: What could be more natural? For thousands of years, humans have used micro-organisms and fermentation as a core food technology. In the 21st century, however, our relationship with bacteria and fungi is moving in radically new directions as we learn how to reprogram biology at the molecular level.
Advances in the ability to read, write and edit genetic code, coupled with rapid progress in automation and artificial intelligence (AI), means it is now possible to engineer living things in the lab with unprecedented precision. This has driven the rise of the field of synthetic biology, in which cells are used to develop novel materials.
The concept of harnessing microbes to make complex molecules is not exactly new. In fact, it has been a vital part of the pharmaceutical sector for years, where it is used to produce cancer-fighting antibodies, insulin and modern anti-obesity treatments. But the scientists and startups behind the latest industrial biotech aim to go a lot further, transforming the production of everything from flavors, fabrics and fuel to chemicals and cement, in a wave of disruption that could wean the world’s factories off fossil fuels.
“We are on the cusp of a new biotech revolution. The first one started in the 1970s and 1980s and was about human health. The second one is now and is about planetary health,” said Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen, Chief Executive Officer of the Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF).
Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen, Chief Executive Officer of the Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF).
“We are just starting out on bio-industrial solutions for the green transition, but we are on a rapidly ascending curve. We need more scientific literacy about what these technologies can offer for the future of the planet.”
In the last three years, the NNF and its investment arm Novo Holdings has stepped up support for both academic labs and young companies in this area, leveraging the foundation’s unique position as the controlling shareholder of Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk and industrial group Novonesis. Thanks to the meteoric rise in the value of Novo Nordisk shares, it is now the world’s largest charitable foundation, with the financial muscle to make significant pump-priming investments.
Shaping synthetic biology so that it is a force for sustainability and a greener future is a huge opportunity—but also a huge challenge. In the first place, the volumes required to produce commodity chemicals, construction materials and consumer products will be orders of magnitude greater than with pharmaceuticals. This requires economies of scale that have yet to be achieved. Furthermore, new regulatory thinking is needed to help the sector flourish, while paying attention to biosecurity risks.
So far, synthetic biology has not generated the same kind of headlines as AI, but some technology pioneers believe it will drive similarly dramatic changes in society and bring similar risks and rewards. “Alongside AI, this will be the most important transformation of our lifetimes,” DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman argues in his bestselling book The Coming Wave.
Thomsen: We are on the cusp of a new biotech revolution. The first one started in the 1970s and 1980s and was about human health. The second one is now and is about planetary health.
It is not surprising, therefore, that governments around the world are starting to pay attention to the potential of biology to reshape economies.
“Momentum is building and people are now looking at this in a more serious light. There is a much greater awareness from governments now of the potential opportunity,” said Professor Paul Freemont, Head of the Section of Structural and Synthetic Biology at Imperial College London.
“Concomitant with that is a lot of policy work around the technology looking at issues like biosecurity, regulation, supply chains and international competitiveness because there’s a recognition that we need to be upfront about the challenges ahead.”
Signs of the topic moving up the agenda include President Joe Biden’s September 2022 executive order to advance the US bioeconomy and the British government’s £2 billion vision for engineering biology in December 2023. Asian governments are also investing heavily, with both China and South Korea establishing large-scale “biofoundries” that offer an integrated infrastructure for designing and developing reprogrammed organisms.
In theory, micro-organisms could produce vast swaths of products that are currently churned out by factories. Indeed, McKinsey estimates that as much as 60% of the physical inputs to the global economy could, in principle, be produced biologically—one-third of them biological, such as timber and food, and production processes for them could be improved through innovations.
Professor Paul Freemont, Head of the Section of Structural and Synthetic Biology at Imperial College London.
The other two-thirds of them are non-biological, such as plastics and fuels, and could be produced or replaced using biological processes.
Making all these things cost-effectively, however, is another matter.
“That 60% figure is definitely true,“ said Freemont. “The question is what is the lever that is going to unlock that potential? We could use microbes to make pretty much everything we currently manufacture using commodity petrochemicals, but we can’t currently do it at the same cost. The big challenge is how we get the economics to work.”
As a result, while the science is advancing rapidly and the field has spun off a string of startups with smart ideas, few of these enterprises have so far had the commercial success needed to make a meaningful impact. There have also been some notable flops, such as early investments on biofuels that failed due to high production costs and falling oil prices.
Nonetheless, synthetic biology’s supporters believe that its time is coming as the science advances, and more and more industries hunt for new ways to their hit net-zero targets—under mounting pressure from governments, investors and consumers.
The key enabling technology of synthetic biology is the ability to write new DNA code using modern gene-editing tools like CRISPR rather than simply moving nature’s pre-existing code between organisms. Significantly, as with Moore’s law in computing, the cost of this process is plunging and the tools to tweak microbes are becoming ever more sophisticated. In January 2024, for example, scientists unveiled a new way to turn E.coli bacteria into molecular factories with the potential to churn out a vast range of polymers, offering far greater flexibility than existing methods.
Freemont: We need to get the message right because this is one of the few ways in which we can address the climate crisis by manufacturing the things we need without fossil fuels.
“I think the chemical companies of the future will become essentially biotech companies,” said Freemont. “The biggest driver is going to be economics and the impact of net-zero policies and carbon taxes. Once the economics make sense, it is remarkable how quickly things can move.”
The time it takes for the technology and economics to evolve will vary from sector to sector. However, a Boston Consulting Group analysis predicts that by the end of the decade it could be used in industries with a combined output of nearly $30 trillion, with healthcare, beauty products and foodstuffs among early adopters.
Public attitudes will be one key factor in the pace of adoption. Will the emerging technology follow the path set by medicine, where treatments made inside micro-organisms have been widely accepted, or will there be a re-run of the kind of controversies sparked by GMO foods?
“We need to get the message right because this is one of the few ways in which we can address the climate crisis by manufacturing the things we need without fossil fuels,” said Freemont.
Krogsgaard Thomsen agrees. He sees an analogy with the evolution of renewable power, where initial financial support was required, and a wary public also had to be won over.
“I think if you look 20 years into the future, we will be where we are today with windmills and solar energy. But it does need some help, including a new regulatory framework and some risk-willing investments.”