Leaders of the most important economies around the world at the 2024 G20 Summit in Brazil.
South Africa is stepping onto the global stage as G20 leader for the first time, and it’s doing so at a turbulent moment. With the renewal of US President-elect Trump’s “America First” agenda, the world fractured by geopolitical rivalries, trade protectionism, and the fading strength of multilateral institutions, South Africa faces a daunting task in guiding the group toward meaningful progress.
The G20 does not take direct actions but issues communiqués by consensus. As the final country out of the original 20 to hold the Chair in the first G20 cycle, South Africa will lead, setting goals and agendas in cooperation with the outgoing and incoming Chairs. In 2024, the post was held by Brazil. And in 2026, it returns to the US, which will be looking to further the Trump administration’s priorities.
Why should business care? Because agreed words between nations can reflect policy directions and can reduce tensions. They can also provide a framework to limit uncertainty. This informal group of nations represents nearly 85% of global GDP, 80% of its population and more than 75% of global trade. South Africa’s first time as Chair is an opportunity to push the group for a renewed focus on Africa that could open doors for partnerships in renewable energy, infrastructure and digital innovation.
The obstacles are clear. A trade war is looming, with new US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China slated to take effect in February 2025. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to disrupt energy markets and push inflation higher, splitting G20 members on how to respond. At the November 2024 summit in Brazil, European leaders pressed for a statement directly condemning Russia, but resistance from some members left the group unable to agree.
Meanwhile, US-China tensions are only escalating, as the world’s two largest economies continue their trade standoff. China, through programs like the Belt and Road Initiative and the BRICS coalition, is expanding its influence while engaging selectively with G20 discussions. For the US and Europe, failing to counter these moves risks losing strategic footholds in Africa and across the Global South.
In that context, the US attitude to the G20 remains unpredictable. Back in 2017, Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury Secretary, engaged with his G20 colleagues mostly on a bilateral basis. Yet he did not object to some forms of multilateralism, as shown in the tax sphere where he used G20 negotiations to limit bilateral tensions on digital service taxes. How Trump’s current Treasury pick, hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, will navigate the summit is unclear. Bessent has been a supporter of Trump’s plan for trade tariffs, for instance, but has also suggested their severity could be mollified in negotiations with trade partners.
The upcoming G20 Finance Ministers’ meeting at the end of February will be the first test of how far the new US administration is willing to go with multilateral cooperation. South Africa will need to navigate this diplomatically to maintain the group’s cohesion at a time when the BRICS group is enlarging and firming up its own agenda.
South Africa’s first time as Chair is an opportunity to push the group for a renewed focus on Africa that could open doors for partnerships in renewable energy, infrastructure and digital innovation.
Domestic politics in other G20 nations add to the challenge. India’s “Make in India” campaign prioritizes domestic manufacturing over global trade liberalization, while Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to upend economic norms with unpredictable policy decisions. These trends make it harder for the G20 to align on global trade, investment and growth priorities. For the US and Europe, these divides complicate efforts to build consensus and push forward their own agendas.
The Trump administration, and the US’s impending turn as Chair in 2026, may set the tone for this G20. It is unclear how the group will progress, or whether it turns into a club of “strong men” (and women) negotiating transactional deals, or even fades away of a relic of past multilateralism.
South Africa’s Shot
Still, South Africa has a unique chance to prove that multilateralism can deliver, including for developing countries. The African Union joined the G20 in 2023 and will try to make its voice heard. Nigeria is also invited to participate in the G20 in the coming year, along with Egypt.
In 2025, Spain will host the fourth Financing for Development (FFD4) conference, which will be decisive in shaping a new framework from debt relief mechanisms and in renewing domestic resource mobilization (DRM). The first-ever African G20 Presidency is an opportunity to seek support for this agenda. At a time where fiscal constraints are unprecedented in the North, in a context of increasing defense spending, aid is more than ever at risk, and DRM will be critical for developing countries to grow their own revenue. As Trevor Manuel, the former South African finance minister, put it, T-A-X may be the new way to spell AID!
Another key point is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows African nations to export to the US duty-free. With the act set to expire in September 2025, South Africa can push for its renewal as a win-win—giving African economies stability while bolstering US influence in a region where China has made significant inroads. Highlighting AGOA’s benefits could demonstrate the importance of dependable trade relationships, even in a divided world.
Debt relief is another area where South Africa could lead. The G20’s debt treatment framework has been criticized for being slow and limited. By advocating for broader eligibility to include middle-income African countries and cutting red tape, South Africa can push for faster, fairer solutions. For the US and Europe, supporting these efforts could stabilize key economies and foster goodwill in a region critical to global growth.
Private-sector investment is equally vital. South Africa can leverage the G20’s Compact with Africa program to draw commitments for infrastructure, renewable energy and digital transformation. With Germany and Japan already backing similar efforts, South Africa has the chance to secure tangible results that benefit the continent. For businesses, these initiatives could open new opportunities in rapidly growing African markets, particularly in green energy and tech.
Climate change presents a challenging opportunity for South Africa’s leadership. The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), an $8.5 billion initiative supported by the US and EU, was an attempt to drive equitable energy transitions. Yet tensions prevail between South Africa and the European Union on the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. With carbon markets having been recognized at the 2024 Climate Change Conference in Baku, what dynamic will be at play in the G20 and at the COP30 in Brazil remains to be seen.
South Africa’s G20 leadership will test whether multilateralism can still function in a deeply divided world. By prioritizing the needs of the Global South and finding common ground among competing powers, South Africa has a rare opportunity to reshape the global agenda and prove that cooperation, while difficult, is still worth pursuing.